Mapping lung cancer disease in Libya using Standardized Morbidity Ratio, BYM model and mixture model, 2006 to 2011: Bayesian Epidemiological Study

Abstract

Cancer represents a significant burden on both patients and their families and their societies, especially in developing countries, including Libya. Therefore, the aim of this study was to model the geographical distribution of lung cancer incidence in Libya. The correct choice of a statistical model is a very important step to producing a good map of disease in question. Therefore, in this study will use three models to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer disease, they are initially Standardized Morbidity Ratio, which is the most common statistic used in disease mapping, BYM model, and Mixture model. As an initial step, this study begins by providing a review of all models are proposed, which we then apply to lung cancer data in Libya. In this paper, we show some preliminary results, which are displayed and compared by using maps, tables, graphics and goodness-of-fit, the last measure of displaying the results is common in statistical modelling to compare fitted models. The main general results presented in this study show that the last two models, BYM and Mixture have been demonstrated to overcome the problem of the first model when there no observed lung cancer cases in certain districts. Also, other results show that Mixture model is most robust and gives a better relative risk estimate across compared it with a range of models.