Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach

Abstract

COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, and it is highly contagious with significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and implications of several phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) and some non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies implemented by Malaysian government in the year 2020 using a mathematical model with SIR-neural network approaches. It is observed that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic and, Malaysia had succeeded to flatten the infection curve at the end of the Conditional MCO (CMCO) period. However, the signs of ‘flattening’ with R0 of less than one had been taken as a signal to ease up on some restrictions enforced before. Though the government has made compulsory the use of face masks in public places to control the spread of COVID-19, we observe a contrasting finding from our model with regards to the impacts of wearing mask policies in Malaysia on R0 and the infection curve. Additionally, other events such as the Sabah State Election at the end of third quarter of 2020 has also imposed a dramatic COVID-19 burden on the society and the healthcare systems.