Insights into variations in COVID-19 infections in Malaysia

Kirubha Sanmugan, and Muzalwana Abdul Talib, (2022) Insights into variations in COVID-19 infections in Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana, 51 (5). pp. 1599-1608. ISSN 0126-6039


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The present study aims to visualize the variations in the number of confirmed daily COVID-19 infections during the third wave in Malaysia through the application of control charts. This study also attempts to propose the target number of daily new cases that would bring the pandemic situation in Malaysia under control by utilizing the confirmed daily cases in Malaysia starting from 8th September 2020 until 30th June 2021. A modified Shewhart control chart was adopted to monitor the variations before and after the commencement of National Immunisation Programme (NIP). The chart shows a declining trend in the number of cases after the rollout of NIP whereby several days were brought to a state of statistical-in-control. But in less than three months after NIP commencement, there were huge variations in COVID-19 cases leading to drastic increase in the mean number of cases. These signal the presence of unnatural or assignable causes of variations which could be attributed to failure of curbing the risks of transmission, existence of various variants in the community, easing of containment measures and less adherence to the COVID-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). Significant shifts in the mean values prompt the development of a 3-phase modified Shewhart control chart. From the 3-phase chart, a series of daily number new cases that can be set as the target value to bring the pandemic situation inMalaysia under control, while flattening the epidemiological curve in the very near term.

Item Type:Article
Keywords:Control charts; COVID-19; Variation study
Journal:Sains Malaysiana
ID Code:19491
Deposited By: ms aida -
Deposited On:23 Aug 2022 03:38
Last Modified:26 Aug 2022 08:02

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