Study of transmission of tuberculosis by SIR model using Runge-Kutta method

Abstract

This project is conducted to see the prediction of the transmission of the tuberculosis disease's trend with demography and without demography. It is carried out by the SIR model with the Runge-Kutta fourth-order technique using mathematical modelling to analyse Tuberculosis transmission. Furthermore, this project examines the Tuberculosis disease prediction performance of the two SIR models by comparing the data and also to predict the future trend of Tuberculosis transmission in Malaysia in the year 2021 by calculating its incidence rate for each 100 thousand people. We discovered that combining the SIR Model with demography improves the prediction of Tuberculosis disease spread. We also discovered that the higher the transmission rate, the lower the incidence rate per 100 thousand people, and the higher the incidence rate per 100 thousand people, the lower the recovery rate. As a result, it is acceptable to argue that these variables play a significant impact in determining epidemic growth rates.