Estimates of inter-provincial migration in South Africa, 1996-2011

Abstract

Migration is an important component of population change in South Africa. Unfortunately, like in most countries, reliable data on migration is not readily available. The aim of this study is to estimate net internal migration for provinces in South Africa using Census Survival Ratio Method (CSRM). This method is underutilized in demographic research in the country and is based on the reported age-sex statistics collected in the census and demographic surveys. The method compares the projected population for each age and sex based on the first censuses and the reported population at the second census. In absence of errors in the age statistics the difference between the projected and enumerated populations could be attributed to net migration. The results indicate that during the intercensal period 1996-2001, Gauteng and Western Cape were the major receiving provinces whereas the other remaining provinces were the sending provinces in the country. The results are consistent with findings based on other estimation procedures and correspond to nature of social and economic development in the country. One policy implication of the study is that efforts should continue being made to make the sending provinces more attractive so as to reduce the inflow of people to the crowded and more affluent provinces of Gauteng and Western Cape.