Analysis of T-year return level for partial duration rainfall series

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters and predicts the T-year return levels of extreme rainfall events using the Partial Duration Series (PDS) method based on the hourly rainfall data of five stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In particular, the GPD parameters are estimated using five methods namely the method of Moments (MOM), the probability weighted moments (PWM), the L-moments (LMOM), the Trimmed L-moments (TLMOM) and the Maximum Likelihood (ML) and the performance of the T-year return level of each estimation method is analyzed based on the RMSE measure obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, we suggest the weighted average model, a model which assigns the inverse variance of several methods as weights, to estimate the T-year return level. This paper contributes to the hydrological literatures in terms of three main elements. Firstly, we suggest the use of hourly rainfall data as an alternative to provide a more detailed and valuable information for the analysis of extreme rainfall events. Secondly, this study applies five methods of parametric approach for estimating the GPD parameters and predicting the T-year return level. Finally, in this study we propose the weighted average model, a model that assigns the inverse variance of several methods as weights, for the estimation of the T-year return level.