Dynamic modelling for assessing the impact of marine debris on the population of Sea Turtles

Abstract

Marine debris has significant impacts on marine animals including the sea turtles, which are particularly vulnerable to the presence of waste in the marine environment. We propose a novel mathematical model with three compartments to examine this effect: the sea turtle population, the concentration level of pollution inside sea turtles’ bodies, and the concentration level of pollution in marine environment. We locate the equilibrium points (also known as equilibria) for the suggested model and perform an analytical check on their stability. We also use the bifurcation analysis to examine how changing a model parameter affects the stability of the model's equilibria. Our findings demonstrated the existence of two equilibria: the sea turtles' survival equilibrium and their extinction equilibrium. The eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix applied to the proposed model have been used to demonstrate the conditions for stability of these equilibria. The resulting bifurcation diagram demonstrates that both equilibrium points undergo transcritical bifurcations when the values of response intensity of toxicity parameter is varied. The findings of this study can help local or national governments make decisions and educate the public about sea turtle conservation in order to sustain sea turtle populations in the future.